A flat pattern in home sales activity should continue for the next couple of months before improving over the summer, according to the latest forecast by the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®.Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the extent of an expected recovery hinges on better access to affordable loans. “Things are beginning to improve, but the availability of affordable mortgages is uneven around the country and sometimes within metropolitan areas,” he says. “As anticipated, we continue to look for a soft first half of the year, for both housing and the economy, before notable improvements in the second half. Some time is needed for FHA and new conforming jumbo loans to become widely available.”
The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in March, edged down 1.0 percent to 83.0 from a downwardly revised level of 83.8 in February, and was 20.1 percent lower than the March 2007 index of 103.9. NAR President Richard F. Gaylord says additional costs in many markets are hindering a recovery. “Our members are telling us that more buyers are looking at homes but are slow in signing contracts, and that’s contributing to the weakness in pending home sales,” he says. “In many cases buyers are waiting for greater access to affordable credit, especially in higher cost areas, but some are disappointed with what appears to be unnecessarily restrictive lending requirements. The good news this week is there is some discussion toward relaxing some of the burdensome lending practices.”The PHSI in the Northeast jumped 12.5 percent in March to 80.8 but remains 15.4 percent below a year ago. In the South, the index slipped 0.1 percent to 84.9 and is 26.7 percent lower than March 2007. The index in the West declined 1.4 percent in March to 91.2 and is 9.5 percent below a year ago. In the Midwest, the index fell 10.4 percent in March to 74.1 and is 22.3 percent below March 2007.Existing-home sales are projected to rise from an annual pace of 4.95 million in the first quarter to 5.82 million in the fourth quarter. For all of 2008, existing-home sales are likely to total 5.39 million, and then rise 6.1 percent to 5.72 million next year. “Although more than half of local markets are expected to see price growth this year, the aggregate existing-home price will decline 2.4 percent in 2008, driven by a relatively few markets that are very oversupplied,” Yun says. The median price is forecast at $213,700 this year before rising 4.1 percent to $222,600 in 2009. Some areas already are seeing sales increases, underscoring that all real estate is local. In March, unpublished snapshot data shows sales in Bakersfield, Calif., and Jackson, Miss., were higher than a year ago. At the same time, price gains were noted in markets such as Buffalo-Niagara Falls, and Cedar Rapids, Iowa. On May 13, NAR will report first-quarter data on metropolitan area home prices, covering about 150 metro areas, and state home sales. “Although some market adjustments are necessary, a downward overshooting of the housing market would cause unnecessary loss in economic output, income, and jobs,” Yun says. “It is critical to stimulate housing demand by inducing fence sitters back into the market. A home buyer tax credit on any home purchase would accomplish that.”Here are some highlights from NAR's report:
New-homes. Sales of new homes are expected to fall 30.9 percent to 536,000 this year before rising 10.1 percent to 590,000 in 2009. Housing starts, including multifamily units, will probably drop 29.5 percent to 955,000 in 2008, and then rise 1.3 percent to 967,000 next year. The median new-home price is estimated to fall 3.7 percent to $238,000 this year, and then rise 5.4 percent in 2009 to $250,900.
Rates. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is likely to rise gradually to 6.2 percent by the end of the year, and then average 6.3 percent in 2009.
Affordability. NAR’s housing affordability index is expected to rise 10 percentage points to 127.0 for all of 2008.
GDP. Growth in the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) should be 1.5 percent this year and 2.3 percent in 2009. The unemployment rate is projected to average 5.3 percent in 2008 and 5.5 percent next year.
Inflation. Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, is seen at 3.4 percent this year and 2.2 percent in 2009. Inflation-adjusted disposable personal income is forecast to grow 1.2 percent in 2008 and 3.0 percent next year.
Monday, May 12, 2008
Tuesday, May 6, 2008
House Hunting Center
By Dian Hymer
Distributed by Inman News
One of the first things you should do if you're thinking about selling is to walk through your home and examine it with a critical eye. Imagine yourself as a buyer and force yourself to make mental note of all the imperfections you've ignored for years.
Don't be surprised if you're overwhelmed by what you see. The drapes may be faded and frayed from years of sun exposure. If you have children or pets, the interior doors and baseboards may be nicked and need paint. Your furniture might be outdated and the floors might look worn. It may strike you that the place needs so much work that you ought to just move out, slap on a fresh coat of paint, redo the floors and sell the house vacant.
Painting and floor refurbishing are good ideas. Renewing the interior surfaces of your home when you sell is one of the most cost-effective improvements you can make to increase your net proceeds. Buyers usually pay more for homes that are in move-in condition.
However, selling a vacant home could result in a lower net return. The main reason for this is that first impressions play a big part in selling homes. When buyers walk into a home that looks bright, inviting and comfortable, they feel good. When most buyers walk into a vacant home, they feel that something is missing.
HOME SELLER TIP: Many people have a hard time imagining what a vacant home will look like when it's furnished. For these buyers, a vacant house poses a problem. They walk into an empty living room and start worrying about how they'd furnish it. It can be a threatening experience.
Home buying is stressful enough without having to worry about how the floor plan works and which room is used for what. A strategically furnished house creates a more pleasurable viewing experience and reduces the stress of buying.
Granted some buyers, such as architects and designers, have the ability to conceptualize in three-dimension. Some experienced buyers have moved so many times that they've developed the knack of visualizing their furniture in an empty space. But, you are likely to sell your home for more money if you can appeal to the entire pool of prospective buyers, not just those who have a particular expertise.
You can certainly sell your home vacant. Virtually everything sells at a price. The question is how much more could you sell your home for if it was attractively furnished?
A listing in the Oakland Hills (Calif.) was put on the market last fall. It had a great view, but was vacant. It did not sell after three months on the market during a time when all well-priced listings in the area were selling. The listing was temporarily withdrawn from the market and staged with rental furniture and accessories. It was put back on the market at the same price and sold right away.
The cost of staging your home for sale may seem prohibitive, but it needn't be. Many sellers who stage their homes for sale use their own furniture after removing outdated pieces and rearranging the rest.
Tattered draperies can be removed and often don't need to be replaced, unless they cover an unsightly or distracting outlook. For selling purposes, it's important to let in as much light as possible.
It's a good idea to consult with a decorator who specializes in staging homes for sale. A stager can arrange to bring in furniture if you decide that's what you need. To keep costs down, you may be able to create an inviting ambiance without furnishing your entire house or condo.
THE CLOSING: The living and dining room, kitchen, family room and master bedroom are the most important places to concentrate your staging efforts.
Distributed by Inman News
One of the first things you should do if you're thinking about selling is to walk through your home and examine it with a critical eye. Imagine yourself as a buyer and force yourself to make mental note of all the imperfections you've ignored for years.
Don't be surprised if you're overwhelmed by what you see. The drapes may be faded and frayed from years of sun exposure. If you have children or pets, the interior doors and baseboards may be nicked and need paint. Your furniture might be outdated and the floors might look worn. It may strike you that the place needs so much work that you ought to just move out, slap on a fresh coat of paint, redo the floors and sell the house vacant.
Painting and floor refurbishing are good ideas. Renewing the interior surfaces of your home when you sell is one of the most cost-effective improvements you can make to increase your net proceeds. Buyers usually pay more for homes that are in move-in condition.
However, selling a vacant home could result in a lower net return. The main reason for this is that first impressions play a big part in selling homes. When buyers walk into a home that looks bright, inviting and comfortable, they feel good. When most buyers walk into a vacant home, they feel that something is missing.
HOME SELLER TIP: Many people have a hard time imagining what a vacant home will look like when it's furnished. For these buyers, a vacant house poses a problem. They walk into an empty living room and start worrying about how they'd furnish it. It can be a threatening experience.
Home buying is stressful enough without having to worry about how the floor plan works and which room is used for what. A strategically furnished house creates a more pleasurable viewing experience and reduces the stress of buying.
Granted some buyers, such as architects and designers, have the ability to conceptualize in three-dimension. Some experienced buyers have moved so many times that they've developed the knack of visualizing their furniture in an empty space. But, you are likely to sell your home for more money if you can appeal to the entire pool of prospective buyers, not just those who have a particular expertise.
You can certainly sell your home vacant. Virtually everything sells at a price. The question is how much more could you sell your home for if it was attractively furnished?
A listing in the Oakland Hills (Calif.) was put on the market last fall. It had a great view, but was vacant. It did not sell after three months on the market during a time when all well-priced listings in the area were selling. The listing was temporarily withdrawn from the market and staged with rental furniture and accessories. It was put back on the market at the same price and sold right away.
The cost of staging your home for sale may seem prohibitive, but it needn't be. Many sellers who stage their homes for sale use their own furniture after removing outdated pieces and rearranging the rest.
Tattered draperies can be removed and often don't need to be replaced, unless they cover an unsightly or distracting outlook. For selling purposes, it's important to let in as much light as possible.
It's a good idea to consult with a decorator who specializes in staging homes for sale. A stager can arrange to bring in furniture if you decide that's what you need. To keep costs down, you may be able to create an inviting ambiance without furnishing your entire house or condo.
THE CLOSING: The living and dining room, kitchen, family room and master bedroom are the most important places to concentrate your staging efforts.
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